Marking a major change in demographics, by the end of this year L.A. will no longer be a city where most of the people were born outside California – a first for the city, and a “homegrown revolution,” said Dowell Myers, a USC professor directing the Population Dynamics Research Group, referencing a USC study released Tuesday.
In addition, the new study projects drastically-reduced population growth rates and major demographic population shifts.
“It’s an extraordinary moment in Los Angeles history – everything we know about L.A. will change,” Myers said. “With slower growth and change, we may find it easier, certainly less frantic, to keep up with public needs for new services and private demands for new development.”
The report predicts that by 2030 two-thirds of young Angeleno adults – new taxpayers, workers and homebuyers – will have been born in California.
Previous major trends that defined demographic changes in the Southland have diminished, beginning in 1990 and intensifying in the last decade, the report said. That includes the historic high level of immigration and ethnic change.
The Latino share of population was growing by 10 percent in the 1980s, but slowed to 3.2 percent in the first decade of this century, the report indicated.
Plus, the existing immigrant population is becoming increasingly long-settled, with roots in this nation that are developed over decades, the report said.
A coming wave of seniors is forecast, as baby boomers hang up their work clothes.
The ratio of seniors to prime-working-age people held steady in the ‘80s and ‘90s, at around 19 seniors per 100 workers. That ratio is expected to balloon to 36.4 seniors per 100 working age adults by 2030, according to the USC report.
Overall population growth will be low, according to the researchers. The L.A. population is expected to grow by 312,347 this decade, compared to a growth of 1.4 million people during the ‘80s.